Nerves were high in Game 1, which resulted in a low-scoring game. The Nuggets should be sharper from outside after shaking off the rust. I think the offenses should be a lot better in Game 2, with the Heat getting a breather and adjusting to the altitude in Denver. The total for Game 1 was 219 for Game 2, it’s been as low as 213.5, but has ticked up to 215.5. In Rounds 2-4, Game 2s have gone 43-25-1 (63.2%) to the over when the first game went under, according to the history of the Killer Sports SDQL database, which dates back to the 2002-2003 season. I am looking at the over in the second game of the NBA Finals. The Nuggets looked a class above the Heat in the Game 1 victory, but Miami has defied odds and trends throughout the postseason. Favorites of 3.5 points or more off a win are 134-93-4 (59.0%) since the 2015-2016 season, per the SDQL at Killer Sports.

I have a stat to debunk the typical zig-zag theory. got easy shots against this smaller Heat team. Aaron Gordon used his size to bully his way into the paint and dominate smaller defenders. The Nuggets primarily did their damage inside. He took over the scoring in the second half and finished with a 27-point triple-double. He found his teammates for easy baskets as Denver built an early lead. He began Game 1 as the primary facilitator and tallied 10 assists in the first half. Denver has won and covered all three matchups against Miami this season. In the playoffs, they are 9-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. The Nuggets are an incredible 43-7 straight up (SU) and 31-18-1 against the spread (ATS) at home this season. Also worth noting is that Martin did not participate in practice on Saturday due to an illness. While the Heat have fared well without him, his ability to score could be crucial to match the output of the Nuggets. Tyler Herro could make his return from a fractured right hand in Game 2, so keep tabs on that potential development. An ailing right ankle and fatigue seems to have slowed Butler. His excellence offset an ineffective showing from Jimmy Butler, who ended up with 13 points on 6-for-14 shooting from the field. It seemed like the Nuggets’ game plan was to have Adebayo beat them instead of their shooters. He was aggressive and scored at will, racking up 26 points and 13 rebounds. On a positive note, Haywood Highsmith, another undrafted gem discovered by the Heat, emerged as an unlikely X factor as he played well on both ends of the floor.īam Adebayo was another one of the few bright spots for the Heat. After a couple of days to regroup, can their shooters bounce back?

The Heat definitely looked like a team that played a seven-game series, traveled across the country on short rest and played in the Denver altitude. Well, it happened in Game 1.Ĭaleb Martin, Max Strus and Duncan Robinson went a combined 2-for-23 from the field. Miami’s shooting has been incredible all postseason, leaving analysts and fans to wonder when - or if - regression would hit.

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